ARC Resources Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARX Stock | CAD 25.04 0.35 1.38% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARC Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 25.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.40. ARC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although ARC Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ARC Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ARC Resources fundamentals over time.
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Most investors in ARC Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ARC Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ARC Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for ARC Resources works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. ARC Resources Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARC Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 25.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARC Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ARC Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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ARC Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ARC Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARC Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.61 and 26.47, respectively. We have considered ARC Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARC Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARC Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0676 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3119 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.4045 |
Predictive Modules for ARC Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARC Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARC Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ARC Resources
For every potential investor in ARC, whether a beginner or expert, ARC Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARC Resources' price trends.ARC Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARC Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARC Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARC Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ARC Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARC Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARC Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ARC Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ARC Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ARC Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ARC Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ARC Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ARC Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of ARC Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARC Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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ARC Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether ARC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ARC with respect to the benefits of owning ARC Resources security.