Amazon Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMZ Stock | 170.34 3.14 1.88% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 168.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 142.92. Amazon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amazon stock prices and determine the direction of Amazon Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amazon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections. Amazon |
Most investors in Amazon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amazon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amazon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Amazon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Amazon Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Amazon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 168.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34, mean absolute percentage error of 9.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 142.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amazon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amazon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amazon Stock Forecast Pattern
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Amazon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amazon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amazon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 167.22 and 169.95, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amazon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amazon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3405 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.343 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 142.9236 |
Predictive Modules for Amazon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Amazon
For every potential investor in Amazon, whether a beginner or expert, Amazon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amazon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amazon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amazon's price trends.Amazon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amazon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amazon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amazon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amazon Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amazon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amazon's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amazon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amazon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amazon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amazon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amazon Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 361.74 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.286885 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 169.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 169.86 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.29 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.14 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.12 |
Amazon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amazon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amazon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amazon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9682 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Amazon Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amazon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amazon Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amazon Inc Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis
When running Amazon's price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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