American Software Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMSWA Stock | USD 10.76 0.16 1.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Software on the next trading day is expected to be 10.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.51. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Software stock prices and determine the direction of American Software's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Software's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although American Software's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Software's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Software fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Software to cross-verify your projections. American |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Software's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Software's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Software stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Software's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Software's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Software is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in American Software cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Software's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Software's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Software is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Software value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. American Software Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Software on the next trading day is expected to be 10.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Software Stock Forecast Pattern
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American Software Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Software's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.85 and 13.02, respectively. We have considered American Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2528 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1559 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5101 |
Predictive Modules for American Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for American Software
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Software's price trends.View American Software Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Software Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Software's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Software's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
American Software Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Software Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Variance | 4.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether American Software offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of American Software's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of American Software Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on American Software Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Software to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Software's price analysis, check to measure American Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Software is operating at the current time. Most of American Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Software. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | Dividend Share 0.44 | Earnings Share 0.31 | Revenue Per Share 3.523 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of American Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Software is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.