Allison Transmission Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ALSN Stock | USD 73.83 0.22 0.30% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allison Transmission Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 73.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.66. Allison Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Allison Transmission's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allison Transmission's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allison Transmission fundamentals over time.
Allison |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Allison Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allison Transmission's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allison Transmission's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allison Transmission stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allison Transmission's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allison Transmission's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allison Transmission is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allison. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Allison Transmission cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allison Transmission's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allison Transmission's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Allison Transmission - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Allison Transmission prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Allison Transmission price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Allison Transmission. Allison Transmission Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allison Transmission Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 73.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 1.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allison Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allison Transmission's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allison Transmission Stock Forecast Pattern
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Allison Transmission Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allison Transmission's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allison Transmission's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 72.17 and 74.98, respectively. We have considered Allison Transmission's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allison Transmission stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allison Transmission stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0952 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.74 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.6581 |
Predictive Modules for Allison Transmission
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allison Transmission. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allison Transmission's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Allison Transmission
For every potential investor in Allison, whether a beginner or expert, Allison Transmission's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allison Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allison. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allison Transmission's price trends.Allison Transmission Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allison Transmission stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allison Transmission could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allison Transmission by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allison Transmission Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allison Transmission's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allison Transmission's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Allison Transmission Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allison Transmission stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allison Transmission shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allison Transmission stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allison Transmission Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allison Transmission Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allison Transmission's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allison Transmission's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allison stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9716 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Variance | 1.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectAdditional Information and Resources on Investing in Allison Stock
When determining whether Allison Transmission offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Allison Transmission's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Allison Transmission Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Allison Transmission Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allison Transmission to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allison Transmission. If investors know Allison will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allison Transmission listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.17 | Dividend Share 0.94 | Earnings Share 7.45 | Revenue Per Share 34.64 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
The market value of Allison Transmission is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allison that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allison Transmission's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allison Transmission's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allison Transmission's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allison Transmission's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allison Transmission's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allison Transmission is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allison Transmission's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.