AIXTRON SE Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AIXA Stock  EUR 22.00  0.53  2.35%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AIXTRON SE on the next trading day is expected to be 22.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.49. AIXTRON Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AIXTRON SE stock prices and determine the direction of AIXTRON SE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AIXTRON SE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AIXTRON SE to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in AIXTRON SE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AIXTRON SE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AIXTRON SE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
AIXTRON SE simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for AIXTRON SE are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as AIXTRON SE prices get older.

AIXTRON SE Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AIXTRON SE on the next trading day is expected to be 22.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AIXTRON Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AIXTRON SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AIXTRON SE Stock Forecast Pattern

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AIXTRON SE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AIXTRON SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AIXTRON SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.21 and 24.95, respectively. We have considered AIXTRON SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.00
22.08
Expected Value
24.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AIXTRON SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AIXTRON SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3158
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0916
MADMean absolute deviation0.5082
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0226
SAESum of the absolute errors30.4943
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting AIXTRON SE forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent AIXTRON SE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for AIXTRON SE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AIXTRON SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AIXTRON SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.1322.0024.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.9322.8025.68
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.5622.1223.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AIXTRON SE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AIXTRON SE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AIXTRON SE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AIXTRON SE.

Other Forecasting Options for AIXTRON SE

For every potential investor in AIXTRON, whether a beginner or expert, AIXTRON SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AIXTRON Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AIXTRON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AIXTRON SE's price trends.

AIXTRON SE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AIXTRON SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AIXTRON SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AIXTRON SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AIXTRON SE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AIXTRON SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AIXTRON SE's current price.

AIXTRON SE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AIXTRON SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AIXTRON SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AIXTRON SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AIXTRON SE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AIXTRON SE Risk Indicators

The analysis of AIXTRON SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AIXTRON SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aixtron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in AIXTRON Stock

AIXTRON SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether AIXTRON Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AIXTRON with respect to the benefits of owning AIXTRON SE security.