Ageas SANV Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AGS Stock | EUR 45.52 0.16 0.35% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ageas SANV on the next trading day is expected to be 45.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.35. Ageas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ageas SANV stock prices and determine the direction of ageas SANV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ageas SANV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ageas SANV to cross-verify your projections. Ageas |
Most investors in Ageas SANV cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ageas SANV's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ageas SANV's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Ageas SANV simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for ageas SANV are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as ageas SANV prices get older. Ageas SANV Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ageas SANV on the next trading day is expected to be 45.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ageas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ageas SANV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ageas SANV Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ageas SANV | Ageas SANV Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ageas SANV Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ageas SANV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ageas SANV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.39 and 46.65, respectively. We have considered Ageas SANV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ageas SANV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ageas SANV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7867 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1068 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3558 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.35 |
Predictive Modules for Ageas SANV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ageas SANV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ageas SANV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ageas SANV
For every potential investor in Ageas, whether a beginner or expert, Ageas SANV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ageas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ageas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ageas SANV's price trends.Ageas SANV Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ageas SANV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ageas SANV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ageas SANV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ageas SANV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ageas SANV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ageas SANV's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ageas SANV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ageas SANV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ageas SANV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ageas SANV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ageas SANV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ageas SANV Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ageas SANV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ageas SANV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ageas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8286 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8239 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6787 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ageas SANV in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ageas SANV's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ageas SANV options trading.
Pair Trading with Ageas SANV
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ageas SANV position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ageas SANV will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ageas Stock
| 0.64 | INGA | ING Groep NV | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | SOLB | Solvay SA | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | ACKB | Ackermans Van Haaren Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ageas SANV could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ageas SANV when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ageas SANV - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ageas SANV to buy it.
The correlation of Ageas SANV is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ageas SANV moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ageas SANV moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ageas SANV can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ageas SANV to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Ageas Stock analysis
When running Ageas SANV's price analysis, check to measure Ageas SANV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ageas SANV is operating at the current time. Most of Ageas SANV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ageas SANV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ageas SANV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ageas SANV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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