Aegean Airlines Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AEGN Stock | EUR 12.65 0.05 0.40% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aegean Airlines SA on the next trading day is expected to be 12.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.25. Aegean Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aegean Airlines stock prices and determine the direction of Aegean Airlines SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aegean Airlines' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aegean Airlines to cross-verify your projections. Aegean |
Most investors in Aegean Airlines cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aegean Airlines' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aegean Airlines' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Aegean Airlines polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Aegean Airlines SA as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Aegean Airlines Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aegean Airlines SA on the next trading day is expected to be 12.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aegean Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aegean Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aegean Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aegean Airlines | Aegean Airlines Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aegean Airlines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aegean Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aegean Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.75 and 13.96, respectively. We have considered Aegean Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aegean Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aegean Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3335 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2138 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.2536 |
Predictive Modules for Aegean Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aegean Airlines SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aegean Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aegean Airlines
For every potential investor in Aegean, whether a beginner or expert, Aegean Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aegean Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aegean. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aegean Airlines' price trends.Aegean Airlines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aegean Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aegean Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aegean Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aegean Airlines SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aegean Airlines' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aegean Airlines' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aegean Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aegean Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aegean Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aegean Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aegean Airlines SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1092.48 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.67 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.77 |
Aegean Airlines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aegean Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aegean Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aegean stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Aegean Airlines
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aegean Airlines position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aegean Airlines will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aegean Stock
| 0.68 | ALPHA | Alpha Services | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aegean Airlines could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aegean Airlines when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aegean Airlines - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aegean Airlines SA to buy it.
The correlation of Aegean Airlines is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aegean Airlines moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aegean Airlines SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aegean Airlines can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aegean Airlines to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Aegean Stock analysis
When running Aegean Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Aegean Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aegean Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Aegean Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aegean Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aegean Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aegean Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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