Anheuser Busch Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ABI Stock | EUR 59.48 0.52 0.88% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anheuser Busch Inbev on the next trading day is expected to be 59.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.47. Anheuser Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Anheuser Busch stock prices and determine the direction of Anheuser Busch Inbev's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Anheuser Busch's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anheuser Busch to cross-verify your projections. Anheuser |
Most investors in Anheuser Busch cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Anheuser Busch's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Anheuser Busch's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Anheuser Busch simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Anheuser Busch Inbev are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Anheuser Busch Inbev prices get older. Anheuser Busch Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anheuser Busch Inbev on the next trading day is expected to be 59.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anheuser Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anheuser Busch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Anheuser Busch Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Anheuser Busch | Anheuser Busch Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Anheuser Busch Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Anheuser Busch's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Anheuser Busch's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.30 and 60.66, respectively. We have considered Anheuser Busch's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anheuser Busch stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anheuser Busch stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4171 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0402 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4078 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.47 |
Predictive Modules for Anheuser Busch
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anheuser Busch Inbev. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Anheuser Busch's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Anheuser Busch
For every potential investor in Anheuser, whether a beginner or expert, Anheuser Busch's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Anheuser Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Anheuser. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Anheuser Busch's price trends.Anheuser Busch Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Anheuser Busch stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Anheuser Busch could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Anheuser Busch by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Anheuser Busch Inbev Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Anheuser Busch's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Anheuser Busch's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Anheuser Busch Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Anheuser Busch stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Anheuser Busch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Anheuser Busch stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Anheuser Busch Inbev entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Anheuser Busch Risk Indicators
The analysis of Anheuser Busch's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Anheuser Busch's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting anheuser stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7951 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Anheuser Busch
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Anheuser Busch position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Anheuser Busch will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Anheuser Stock
| 0.44 | MOUR | Moury Construct SA | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | DIE | DIeteren Group SA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Anheuser Busch could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Anheuser Busch when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Anheuser Busch - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Anheuser Busch Inbev to buy it.
The correlation of Anheuser Busch is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Anheuser Busch moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Anheuser Busch Inbev moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Anheuser Busch can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anheuser Busch to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Anheuser Stock analysis
When running Anheuser Busch's price analysis, check to measure Anheuser Busch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Anheuser Busch is operating at the current time. Most of Anheuser Busch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Anheuser Busch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Anheuser Busch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Anheuser Busch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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