Asbury Automotive Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ABG Stock | USD 231.30 3.22 1.41% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Asbury Automotive Group on the next trading day is expected to be 232.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 414.88. Asbury Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Asbury Automotive stock prices and determine the direction of Asbury Automotive Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Asbury Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Asbury Automotive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Asbury Automotive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Asbury Automotive fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Asbury Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Asbury |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Asbury Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Asbury Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Asbury Automotive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Asbury Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Asbury Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to Asbury Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Asbury Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Asbury. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Asbury Automotive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Asbury Automotive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Asbury Automotive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Asbury Automotive price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Asbury Automotive Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Asbury Automotive Group on the next trading day is expected to be 232.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.80, mean absolute percentage error of 68.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 414.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Asbury Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Asbury Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Asbury Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Asbury Automotive | Asbury Automotive Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Asbury Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Asbury Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Asbury Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 230.72 and 234.53, respectively. We have considered Asbury Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Asbury Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Asbury Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3356 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.8013 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 414.8816 |
Predictive Modules for Asbury Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asbury Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Asbury Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Asbury Automotive
For every potential investor in Asbury, whether a beginner or expert, Asbury Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Asbury Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Asbury. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Asbury Automotive's price trends.Asbury Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Asbury Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Asbury Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Asbury Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Asbury Automotive Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Asbury Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Asbury Automotive's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Asbury Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Asbury Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Asbury Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Asbury Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Asbury Automotive Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Asbury Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of Asbury Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Asbury Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asbury stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Asbury Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Asbury Automotive information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Asbury Automotive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Asbury Stock analysis
When running Asbury Automotive's price analysis, check to measure Asbury Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asbury Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of Asbury Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asbury Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asbury Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asbury Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Asbury Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Asbury Automotive. If investors know Asbury will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Asbury Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 27.57 | Revenue Per Share 749.531 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.173 | Return On Assets 0.0724 |
The market value of Asbury Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Asbury that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Asbury Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Asbury Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Asbury Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Asbury Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Asbury Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Asbury Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Asbury Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.