PREMIUM BRANDS Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 5P7 Stock | EUR 58.50 0.50 0.85% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS on the next trading day is expected to be 58.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.64. PREMIUM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PREMIUM BRANDS stock prices and determine the direction of PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PREMIUM BRANDS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PREMIUM BRANDS to cross-verify your projections. PREMIUM |
Most investors in PREMIUM BRANDS cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PREMIUM BRANDS's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PREMIUM BRANDS's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for PREMIUM BRANDS is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. PREMIUM BRANDS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS on the next trading day is expected to be 58.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PREMIUM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PREMIUM BRANDS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PREMIUM BRANDS Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PREMIUM BRANDS | PREMIUM BRANDS Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PREMIUM BRANDS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PREMIUM BRANDS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PREMIUM BRANDS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.70 and 59.93, respectively. We have considered PREMIUM BRANDS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PREMIUM BRANDS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PREMIUM BRANDS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9622 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7481 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.6354 |
Predictive Modules for PREMIUM BRANDS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PREMIUM BRANDS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for PREMIUM BRANDS
For every potential investor in PREMIUM, whether a beginner or expert, PREMIUM BRANDS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PREMIUM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PREMIUM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PREMIUM BRANDS's price trends.PREMIUM BRANDS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PREMIUM BRANDS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PREMIUM BRANDS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PREMIUM BRANDS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PREMIUM BRANDS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PREMIUM BRANDS's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PREMIUM BRANDS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PREMIUM BRANDS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PREMIUM BRANDS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PREMIUM BRANDS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PREMIUM BRANDS HLDGS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.50) |
PREMIUM BRANDS Risk Indicators
The analysis of PREMIUM BRANDS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PREMIUM BRANDS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting premium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PREMIUM BRANDS to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Complementary Tools for PREMIUM Stock analysis
When running PREMIUM BRANDS's price analysis, check to measure PREMIUM BRANDS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PREMIUM BRANDS is operating at the current time. Most of PREMIUM BRANDS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PREMIUM BRANDS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PREMIUM BRANDS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PREMIUM BRANDS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios |