Argosy Research Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 3217 Stock | TWD 164.50 2.00 1.20% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Argosy Research on the next trading day is expected to be 164.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 202.15. Argosy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Argosy Research stock prices and determine the direction of Argosy Research's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Argosy Research's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Argosy Research to cross-verify your projections. Argosy |
Most investors in Argosy Research cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Argosy Research's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Argosy Research's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Argosy Research works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Argosy Research Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Argosy Research on the next trading day is expected to be 164.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.43, mean absolute percentage error of 21.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 202.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Argosy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Argosy Research's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Argosy Research Stock Forecast Pattern
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Argosy Research Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Argosy Research's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Argosy Research's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 161.78 and 166.85, respectively. We have considered Argosy Research's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Argosy Research stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Argosy Research stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7536 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4262 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 202.1477 |
Predictive Modules for Argosy Research
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argosy Research. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Argosy Research's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Argosy Research
For every potential investor in Argosy, whether a beginner or expert, Argosy Research's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Argosy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Argosy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Argosy Research's price trends.Argosy Research Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Argosy Research stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Argosy Research could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Argosy Research by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Argosy Research Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Argosy Research's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Argosy Research's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Argosy Research Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Argosy Research stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Argosy Research shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Argosy Research stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Argosy Research entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 42276.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 165.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 164.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.00) |
Argosy Research Risk Indicators
The analysis of Argosy Research's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Argosy Research's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting argosy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.5 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Argosy Research to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Argosy Stock analysis
When running Argosy Research's price analysis, check to measure Argosy Research's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Argosy Research is operating at the current time. Most of Argosy Research's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Argosy Research's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Argosy Research's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Argosy Research to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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