Amtran Technology Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 2489 Stock | TWD 20.75 0.55 2.58% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amtran Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 20.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.77. Amtran Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amtran Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Amtran Technology Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amtran Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amtran Technology to cross-verify your projections. Amtran |
Most investors in Amtran Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amtran Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amtran Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Amtran Technology works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Amtran Technology Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amtran Technology Co on the next trading day is expected to be 20.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amtran Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amtran Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amtran Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amtran Technology | Amtran Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amtran Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amtran Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amtran Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.74 and 24.19, respectively. We have considered Amtran Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amtran Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amtran Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1147 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3859 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0224 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.7696 |
Predictive Modules for Amtran Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amtran Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amtran Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Amtran Technology
For every potential investor in Amtran, whether a beginner or expert, Amtran Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amtran Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amtran. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amtran Technology's price trends.Amtran Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amtran Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amtran Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amtran Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amtran Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amtran Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amtran Technology's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amtran Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amtran Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amtran Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amtran Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amtran Technology Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amtran Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amtran Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amtran Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amtran stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Variance | 10.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amtran Technology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Amtran Stock analysis
When running Amtran Technology's price analysis, check to measure Amtran Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amtran Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Amtran Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amtran Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amtran Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amtran Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity |