Neinor Homes Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 1NN Stock | 11.72 0.38 3.35% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neinor Homes SA on the next trading day is expected to be 11.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.11. Neinor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Neinor Homes stock prices and determine the direction of Neinor Homes SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Neinor Homes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Neinor Homes to cross-verify your projections. Neinor |
Most investors in Neinor Homes cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Neinor Homes' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Neinor Homes' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Neinor Homes is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Neinor Homes SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Neinor Homes Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neinor Homes SA on the next trading day is expected to be 11.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Neinor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Neinor Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Neinor Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Neinor Homes | Neinor Homes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Neinor Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Neinor Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Neinor Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.14 and 13.09, respectively. We have considered Neinor Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Neinor Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Neinor Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0581 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1147 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.1135 |
Predictive Modules for Neinor Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Neinor Homes SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Neinor Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Neinor Homes
For every potential investor in Neinor, whether a beginner or expert, Neinor Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Neinor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Neinor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Neinor Homes' price trends.Neinor Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Neinor Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Neinor Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Neinor Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Neinor Homes SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Neinor Homes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Neinor Homes' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Neinor Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Neinor Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Neinor Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Neinor Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Neinor Homes SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.38 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.98 |
Neinor Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of Neinor Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Neinor Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting neinor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Neinor Homes
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Neinor Homes position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Neinor Homes will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Neinor Stock
| 0.89 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
Moving against Neinor Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Neinor Homes could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Neinor Homes when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Neinor Homes - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Neinor Homes SA to buy it.
The correlation of Neinor Homes is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Neinor Homes moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Neinor Homes SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Neinor Homes can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Neinor Stock Analysis
When running Neinor Homes' price analysis, check to measure Neinor Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Neinor Homes is operating at the current time. Most of Neinor Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Neinor Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Neinor Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Neinor Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.