Oil Natural (India) Market Value
| ONGC Stock | 275.65 2.70 0.99% |
| Symbol | Oil |
Oil Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Oil Natural's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Oil Natural.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 07/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Oil Natural on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Oil Natural Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in Oil Natural over 30 days. Oil Natural is related to or competes with Gujarat Raffia, FSN E, Aditya Birla, Vodafone Idea, Gujarat Gas, JSW Energy, and Ashok Leyland. Oil Natural is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Oil Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Oil Natural's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Oil Natural Gas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0404 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 24.3 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.74 |
Oil Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Oil Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Oil Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Oil Natural historical prices to predict the future Oil Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0298 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0789 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2101 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0323 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.20) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oil Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oil Natural Gas Backtested Returns
Currently, Oil Natural Gas is very steady. Oil Natural Gas maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0292, which implies the firm had a 0.0292% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Oil Natural Gas, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Oil Natural's Semi Deviation of 3.41, risk adjusted performance of 0.0298, and Coefficient Of Variation of 2878.43 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0874%. Oil Natural has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of -0.44, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Oil Natural are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Oil Natural is likely to outperform the market. Oil Natural Gas right now holds a risk of 2.99%. Please check Oil Natural Gas total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Oil Natural Gas will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.31 |
Below average predictability
Oil Natural Gas has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Oil Natural time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 18th of June 2024 and 18th of June 2024 to 3rd of July 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Oil Natural Gas price movement. The serial correlation of 0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Oil Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.17 |
Oil Natural Gas lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Oil Natural stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Oil Natural's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Oil Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Oil Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Oil Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Oil Natural stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Oil Natural stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Oil Natural stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Oil Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Oil Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Oil Natural stock have on its future price. Oil Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Oil Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Oil Natural stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Oil Natural Gas.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Oil Stock Analysis
When running Oil Natural's price analysis, check to measure Oil Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oil Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Oil Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oil Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oil Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oil Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.