Megastar Foods (India) Market Value
| MEGASTAR | 227.55 2.60 1.13% |
| Symbol | Megastar |
Megastar Foods 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Megastar Foods' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Megastar Foods.
| 09/30/2023 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Megastar Foods on September 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Megastar Foods Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Megastar Foods over 420 days. Megastar Foods is related to or competes with Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy, HDFC Bank, and Bharti Airtel. Megastar Foods is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Megastar Foods Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Megastar Foods' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Megastar Foods Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.21) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.05 |
Megastar Foods Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Megastar Foods' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Megastar Foods' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Megastar Foods historical prices to predict the future Megastar Foods' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.47) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.79) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.19) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Megastar Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Megastar Foods Backtested Returns
Megastar Foods has Sharpe Ratio of -0.15, which conveys that the firm had a -0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Megastar Foods exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Megastar Foods' Mean Deviation of 1.67, standard deviation of 2.65, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.2, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Megastar Foods' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Megastar Foods is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Megastar Foods has a negative expected return of -0.4%. Please make sure to verify Megastar Foods' maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and market facilitation index , to decide if Megastar Foods performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Megastar Foods Limited has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Megastar Foods time series from 30th of September 2023 to 27th of April 2024 and 27th of April 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Megastar Foods price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Megastar Foods price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 625.14 |
Megastar Foods lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Megastar Foods stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Megastar Foods' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Megastar Foods returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Megastar Foods has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Megastar Foods regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Megastar Foods stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Megastar Foods stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Megastar Foods stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Megastar Foods Lagged Returns
When evaluating Megastar Foods' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Megastar Foods stock have on its future price. Megastar Foods autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Megastar Foods autocorrelation shows the relationship between Megastar Foods stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Megastar Foods Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Megastar Stock
Megastar Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether Megastar Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Megastar with respect to the benefits of owning Megastar Foods security.