Uol Group Ltd Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 17.02
| UOLGY Stock | USD 16.89 0.34 2.05% |
UOL |
UOL Group Target Price Odds to finish over 17.02
The tendency of UOL Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 17.02 or more in 90 days |
| 16.89 | 90 days | 17.02 | about 25.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UOL Group to move over $ 17.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.07 (This UOL Group Ltd probability density function shows the probability of UOL Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UOL Group price to stay between its current price of $ 16.89 and $ 17.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.63 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon UOL Group Ltd has a beta of -0.15. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding UOL Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, UOL Group Ltd is likely to outperform the market. Additionally UOL Group Ltd has an alpha of 0.0846, implying that it can generate a 0.0846 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UOL Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UOL Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UOL Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UOL Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UOL Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UOL Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UOL Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UOL Group Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UOL Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
UOL Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UOL Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UOL Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UOL Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 844.3 M |
UOL Group Technical Analysis
UOL Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UOL Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UOL Group Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing UOL Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UOL Group Predictive Forecast Models
UOL Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many UOL Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UOL Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UOL Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UOL Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UOL Group options trading.
Additional Tools for UOL Pink Sheet Analysis
When running UOL Group's price analysis, check to measure UOL Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UOL Group is operating at the current time. Most of UOL Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UOL Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UOL Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UOL Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.