Lifeway Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.13
| LWAY Stock | USD 21.82 0.93 4.45% |
Lifeway |
Lifeway Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 0.13
The tendency of Lifeway Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.13 or more in 90 days |
| 21.82 | 90 days | 0.13 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lifeway Foods to drop to $ 0.13 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lifeway Foods probability density function shows the probability of Lifeway Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lifeway Foods price to stay between $ 0.13 and its current price of $21.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.11 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Lifeway Foods will likely underperform. Additionally Lifeway Foods has an alpha of 0.7, implying that it can generate a 0.7 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lifeway Foods Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Lifeway Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lifeway Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lifeway Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lifeway Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lifeway Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lifeway Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lifeway Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lifeway Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Lifeway Foods Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lifeway Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lifeway Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lifeway Foods is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Lifeway Foods appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 69.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Lifeway Foods Just Flashed Golden Cross Signal Do You Buy |
Lifeway Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lifeway Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lifeway Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lifeway Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.2 M |
Lifeway Foods Technical Analysis
Lifeway Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lifeway Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lifeway Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lifeway Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lifeway Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Lifeway Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lifeway Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lifeway Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lifeway Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lifeway Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lifeway Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lifeway Foods is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Lifeway Foods appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 69.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Lifeway Foods Just Flashed Golden Cross Signal Do You Buy |
Additional Tools for Lifeway Stock Analysis
When running Lifeway Foods' price analysis, check to measure Lifeway Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lifeway Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Lifeway Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lifeway Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lifeway Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lifeway Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.