Fractyl Health Common Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 9.20
| GUTS Stock | 4.44 0.03 0.67% |
Fractyl |
Fractyl Health Target Price Odds to finish over 9.20
The tendency of Fractyl Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 9.20 or more in 90 days |
| 4.44 | 90 days | 9.20 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fractyl Health to move over 9.20 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Fractyl Health Common probability density function shows the probability of Fractyl Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fractyl Health Common price to stay between its current price of 4.44 and 9.20 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.75 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fractyl Health will likely underperform. Additionally Fractyl Health Common has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Fractyl Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fractyl Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fractyl Health Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fractyl Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fractyl Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fractyl Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fractyl Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fractyl Health Common, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fractyl Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.62 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Fractyl Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fractyl Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fractyl Health Common can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fractyl Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Fractyl Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Fractyl Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 120 K. Net Loss for the year was (77.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Fractyl Health generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Fractyl Health has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Fractyl Health to Present at Piper Sandler 2nd Annual Virtual Obesity Day |
Fractyl Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fractyl Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fractyl Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fractyl Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.6 M |
Fractyl Health Technical Analysis
Fractyl Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fractyl Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fractyl Health Common. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fractyl Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fractyl Health Predictive Forecast Models
Fractyl Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fractyl Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fractyl Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fractyl Health Common
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fractyl Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fractyl Health Common help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fractyl Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Fractyl Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Fractyl Health has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 120 K. Net Loss for the year was (77.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Fractyl Health generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Fractyl Health has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Fractyl Health to Present at Piper Sandler 2nd Annual Virtual Obesity Day |
Additional Tools for Fractyl Stock Analysis
When running Fractyl Health's price analysis, check to measure Fractyl Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fractyl Health is operating at the current time. Most of Fractyl Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fractyl Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fractyl Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fractyl Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.