Grupo Comercial (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 126.7
| CHDRAUIB | MXN 128.47 2.35 1.86% |
Grupo |
Grupo Comercial Target Price Odds to finish below 126.7
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 126.70 or more in 90 days |
| 128.47 | 90 days | 126.70 | about 69.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Comercial to drop to 126.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 69.36 (This Grupo Comercial Chedraui probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Comercial Chedraui price to stay between 126.70 and its current price of 128.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Comercial has a beta of 0.41 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Grupo Comercial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grupo Comercial Chedraui will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grupo Comercial Chedraui has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grupo Comercial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Grupo Comercial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Comercial Chedraui. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Comercial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grupo Comercial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Comercial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Comercial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Comercial Chedraui, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Comercial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Grupo Comercial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Comercial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Comercial Chedraui can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Comercial Chedraui has accumulated 17.39 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.04, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Grupo Comercial Chedraui has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Grupo Comercial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Grupo Comercial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Grupo Comercial Chedraui sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Grupo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Grupo Comercial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 51.0% of Grupo Comercial shares are held by company insiders |
Grupo Comercial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Comercial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Comercial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 955 M |
Grupo Comercial Technical Analysis
Grupo Comercial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Comercial Chedraui. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Comercial Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Comercial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Comercial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Comercial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Comercial Chedraui
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Comercial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Comercial Chedraui help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Comercial Chedraui has accumulated 17.39 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.04, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Grupo Comercial Chedraui has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Grupo Comercial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Grupo Comercial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Grupo Comercial Chedraui sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Grupo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Grupo Comercial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 51.0% of Grupo Comercial shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Grupo Stock
Grupo Comercial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Grupo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Grupo with respect to the benefits of owning Grupo Comercial security.