ANZ Group (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 103.65
| AN3PI Stock | 104.20 0.49 0.47% |
ANZ |
ANZ Group Target Price Odds to finish below 103.65
The tendency of ANZ Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 103.65 or more in 90 days |
| 104.20 | 90 days | 103.65 | about 16.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ANZ Group to drop to 103.65 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.32 (This ANZ Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of ANZ Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ANZ Group Holdings price to stay between 103.65 and its current price of 104.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ANZ Group has a beta of 0.0025. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ANZ Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ANZ Group Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ANZ Group Holdings has an alpha of 0.0108, implying that it can generate a 0.0108 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ANZ Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ANZ Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ANZ Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ANZ Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ANZ Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ANZ Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ANZ Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ANZ Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ANZ Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
ANZ Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ANZ Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ANZ Group Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: ANZ Group Holdings Pursues Active Share Buy-Back - TipRanks |
ANZ Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ANZ Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ANZ Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ANZ Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 146.4 B |
ANZ Group Technical Analysis
ANZ Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ANZ Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ANZ Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing ANZ Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ANZ Group Predictive Forecast Models
ANZ Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many ANZ Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ANZ Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ANZ Group Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about ANZ Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ANZ Group Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: ANZ Group Holdings Pursues Active Share Buy-Back - TipRanks |
Other Information on Investing in ANZ Stock
ANZ Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether ANZ Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ANZ with respect to the benefits of owning ANZ Group security.