Esker SA (France) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 184.01
| ALESK Stock | EUR 266.60 2.60 0.97% |
Esker |
Esker SA Target Price Odds to finish over 184.01
The tendency of Esker Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 184.01 in 90 days |
| 266.60 | 90 days | 184.01 | about 89.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Esker SA to stay above € 184.01 in 90 days from now is about 89.38 (This Esker SA probability density function shows the probability of Esker Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Esker SA price to stay between € 184.01 and its current price of €266.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Esker SA has a beta of 0.72. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Esker SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Esker SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Esker SA has an alpha of 0.586, implying that it can generate a 0.59 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Esker SA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Esker SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esker SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Esker SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Esker SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Esker SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Esker SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Esker SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Esker SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 25.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Esker SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Esker Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Esker SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Esker SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 35 M |
Esker SA Technical Analysis
Esker SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Esker Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Esker SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Esker Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Esker SA Predictive Forecast Models
Esker SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Esker SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Esker SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Esker SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Esker SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Esker SA options trading.
Additional Tools for Esker Stock Analysis
When running Esker SA's price analysis, check to measure Esker SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Esker SA is operating at the current time. Most of Esker SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Esker SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Esker SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Esker SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.