Amtrust Financial Services Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 12.67
| AFSIP Stock | USD 14.33 0.03 0.21% |
AmTrust |
AmTrust Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 12.67
The tendency of AmTrust Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.67 or more in 90 days |
| 14.33 | 90 days | 12.67 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AmTrust Financial to drop to $ 12.67 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AmTrust Financial Services probability density function shows the probability of AmTrust Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AmTrust Financial price to stay between $ 12.67 and its current price of $14.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.98 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon AmTrust Financial has a beta of 0.0738. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AmTrust Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AmTrust Financial Services will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AmTrust Financial Services has an alpha of 0.0598, implying that it can generate a 0.0598 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AmTrust Financial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AmTrust Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmTrust Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AmTrust Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AmTrust Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AmTrust Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AmTrust Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AmTrust Financial Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AmTrust Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
AmTrust Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AmTrust Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AmTrust Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AmTrust Financial has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 5.82 B. Net Loss for the year was (348.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 872.65 M. | |
| AmTrust Financial Services has accumulated about 756.1 M in cash with (375.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.82. |
AmTrust Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AmTrust Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AmTrust Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmTrust Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 196.1 M |
AmTrust Financial Technical Analysis
AmTrust Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AmTrust Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AmTrust Financial Services. In general, you should focus on analyzing AmTrust Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AmTrust Financial Predictive Forecast Models
AmTrust Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many AmTrust Financial's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AmTrust Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AmTrust Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about AmTrust Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AmTrust Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AmTrust Financial has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 5.82 B. Net Loss for the year was (348.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 872.65 M. | |
| AmTrust Financial Services has accumulated about 756.1 M in cash with (375.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.82. |
Additional Tools for AmTrust Pink Sheet Analysis
When running AmTrust Financial's price analysis, check to measure AmTrust Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AmTrust Financial is operating at the current time. Most of AmTrust Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AmTrust Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AmTrust Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AmTrust Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.