Icon Offshore Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ICON Stock   1.03  0.02  1.90%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Icon Offshore Bhd on the next trading day is expected to be 1.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.33. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Icon Offshore's stock prices and determine the direction of Icon Offshore Bhd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Icon Offshore's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
A naive forecasting model for Icon Offshore is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Icon Offshore Bhd value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Icon Offshore Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Icon Offshore Bhd on the next trading day is expected to be 1.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Icon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Icon Offshore's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Icon Offshore Stock Forecast Pattern

Icon Offshore Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Icon Offshore's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Icon Offshore's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 3.89, respectively. We have considered Icon Offshore's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.03
1.07
Expected Value
3.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Icon Offshore stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Icon Offshore stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.8657
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3315
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Icon Offshore Bhd. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Icon Offshore. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Icon Offshore

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Icon Offshore Bhd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Icon Offshore

For every potential investor in Icon, whether a beginner or expert, Icon Offshore's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Icon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Icon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Icon Offshore's price trends.

Icon Offshore Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Icon Offshore stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Icon Offshore could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Icon Offshore by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Icon Offshore Bhd Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Icon Offshore's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Icon Offshore's current price.

Icon Offshore Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Icon Offshore stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Icon Offshore shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Icon Offshore stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Icon Offshore Bhd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Icon Offshore Risk Indicators

The analysis of Icon Offshore's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Icon Offshore's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting icon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.