Gamco Natural Resources Fund Market Value
| XGNTX Fund | USD 6.37 0.02 0.31% |
| Symbol | Gamco |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gamco Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gamco Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gamco Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Gamco Natural 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gamco Natural's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gamco Natural.
| 04/15/2024 |
| 05/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gamco Natural on April 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gamco Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gamco Natural over 30 days. Gamco Natural is related to or competes with Vanguard Total, Vanguard 500, Vanguard Total, Vanguard Total, Vanguard Total, Vanguard Total, and Vanguard 500. Gamco Natural is entity of United States More
Gamco Natural Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gamco Natural's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gamco Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.085 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.27 |
Gamco Natural Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gamco Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gamco Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gamco Natural historical prices to predict the future Gamco Natural's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1167 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.157 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0458 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0611 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.77) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gamco Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gamco Natural Resources Backtested Returns
We consider Gamco Natural not too volatile. Gamco Natural Resources holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.26, which attests that the entity had a 0.26% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Gamco Natural Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Gamco Natural's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.76), risk adjusted performance of 0.1167, and Downside Deviation of 1.16 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.19, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Gamco Natural are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Gamco Natural is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
Gamco Natural Resources has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gamco Natural time series from 15th of April 2024 to 30th of April 2024 and 30th of April 2024 to 15th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gamco Natural Resources price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Gamco Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Gamco Natural Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gamco Natural mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gamco Natural's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gamco Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gamco Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gamco Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gamco Natural mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gamco Natural mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gamco Natural mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gamco Natural Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gamco Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gamco Natural mutual fund have on its future price. Gamco Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gamco Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gamco Natural mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gamco Natural Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Gamco Natural Correlation, Gamco Natural Volatility and Gamco Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Gamco Natural. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Gamco Natural technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.