Ternium SA (Mexico) Market Value
| TX Stock | MXN 750.00 29.60 4.11% |
| Symbol | Ternium |
Ternium SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ternium SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ternium SA.
| 04/02/2024 |
| 05/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ternium SA on April 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ternium SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ternium SA over 30 days. Ternium SA is related to or competes with Grupo Simec, and Industrias. Ternium S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and processes various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay... More
Ternium SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ternium SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ternium SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.034 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.06 |
Ternium SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ternium SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ternium SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ternium SA historical prices to predict the future Ternium SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0537 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1096 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0226 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.45) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ternium SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ternium SA Backtested Returns
Ternium SA appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Ternium SA owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.14, which indicates the firm had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Ternium SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Ternium SA's Coefficient Of Variation of 1332.44, risk adjusted performance of 0.0537, and Semi Deviation of 0.8544 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ternium SA holds a performance score of 11. The entity has a beta of -0.22, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ternium SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ternium SA is likely to outperform the market. Please check Ternium SA's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and price action indicator , to make a quick decision on whether Ternium SA's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Ternium SA has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ternium SA time series from 2nd of April 2024 to 17th of April 2024 and 17th of April 2024 to 2nd of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ternium SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Ternium SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 189.86 |
Ternium SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ternium SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ternium SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ternium SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ternium SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ternium SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ternium SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ternium SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ternium SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ternium SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ternium SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ternium SA stock have on its future price. Ternium SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ternium SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ternium SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ternium SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ternium SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ternium SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ternium SA options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Ternium SA Correlation, Ternium SA Volatility and Ternium SA Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ternium SA. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Complementary Tools for Ternium Stock analysis
When running Ternium SA's price analysis, check to measure Ternium SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ternium SA is operating at the current time. Most of Ternium SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ternium SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ternium SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ternium SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios |
Ternium SA technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.