Ultra Fund C Fund Market Value
| TWCCX Fund | USD 54.59 1.01 1.82% |
| Symbol | Ultra |
Ultra Fund 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultra Fund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultra Fund.
| 03/31/2024 |
| 04/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultra Fund on March 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultra Fund C or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultra Fund over 30 days. Ultra Fund is related to or competes with Ultra Fund, and Select Fund. The fund normally invests in stocks of companies that the adviser believes will increase in value over time More
Ultra Fund Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultra Fund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultra Fund C upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9389 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.043 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.7 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.53) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.51 |
Ultra Fund Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultra Fund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultra Fund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultra Fund historical prices to predict the future Ultra Fund's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0678 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0939 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0137 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0479 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 9.08 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultra Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultra Fund C Backtested Returns
We consider Ultra Fund very steady. Ultra Fund C owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0997, which indicates the fund had a 0.0997% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ultra Fund C, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Ultra Fund's Semi Deviation of 0.7647, coefficient of variation of 1002.9, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0678 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. The entity has a beta of 0.0104, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ultra Fund's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ultra Fund is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.3 |
Weak reverse predictability
Ultra Fund C has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultra Fund time series from 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 30th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultra Fund C price movement. The serial correlation of -0.3 indicates that nearly 30.0% of current Ultra Fund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.3 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.54 |
Ultra Fund C lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultra Fund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultra Fund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultra Fund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultra Fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultra Fund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultra Fund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultra Fund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultra Fund mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultra Fund Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultra Fund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultra Fund mutual fund have on its future price. Ultra Fund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultra Fund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultra Fund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultra Fund C.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ultra Fund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ultra Fund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ultra Fund options trading.
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Check out Ultra Fund Correlation, Ultra Fund Volatility and Ultra Fund Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ultra Fund. Note that the Ultra Fund C information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ultra Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Ultra Fund technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.