Turkish Airlines (Turkey) Market Value
| THYAO Stock | TRY 325.25 0.75 0.23% |
| Symbol | Turkish |
Turkish Airlines 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Turkish Airlines' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Turkish Airlines.
| 04/03/2024 |
| 05/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Turkish Airlines on April 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Turkish Airlines or generate 0.0% return on investment in Turkish Airlines over 30 days. Turkish Airlines is related to or competes with Iskenderun Demir, Selcuk Ecza, Vestel Beyaz, Ege Endustri, and Logo Yazilim. Trk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi provides air transport and aircraft technical maintenance services in Turkey and inter... More
Turkish Airlines Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Turkish Airlines' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Turkish Airlines upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1696 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.42 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.61) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.5 |
Turkish Airlines Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Turkish Airlines' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Turkish Airlines' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Turkish Airlines historical prices to predict the future Turkish Airlines' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1332 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4141 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2513 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2103 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.03) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turkish Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turkish Airlines Backtested Returns
Turkish Airlines appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Turkish Airlines owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.11, which indicates the firm had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Turkish Airlines, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Turkish Airlines' Coefficient Of Variation of 509.52, semi deviation of 1.33, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1332 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Turkish Airlines holds a performance score of 8. The entity has a beta of -0.38, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Turkish Airlines are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Turkish Airlines is likely to outperform the market. Please check Turkish Airlines' potential upside, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and day typical price , to make a quick decision on whether Turkish Airlines' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.25 |
Weak reverse predictability
Turkish Airlines has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Turkish Airlines time series from 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024 and 18th of April 2024 to 3rd of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Turkish Airlines price movement. The serial correlation of -0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Turkish Airlines price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 112.25 |
Turkish Airlines lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Turkish Airlines stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Turkish Airlines' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Turkish Airlines returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Turkish Airlines has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Turkish Airlines regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Turkish Airlines stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Turkish Airlines stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Turkish Airlines stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Turkish Airlines Lagged Returns
When evaluating Turkish Airlines' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Turkish Airlines stock have on its future price. Turkish Airlines autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Turkish Airlines autocorrelation shows the relationship between Turkish Airlines stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Turkish Airlines.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Turkish Airlines Correlation, Turkish Airlines Volatility and Turkish Airlines Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Turkish Airlines. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Turkish Stock analysis
When running Turkish Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Turkish Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Turkish Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Turkish Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Turkish Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Turkish Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Turkish Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Turkish Airlines technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.