Alfa Energi (Indonesia) Market Value
| FIRE Stock | IDR 91.00 1.00 1.09% |
| Symbol | Alfa |
Alfa Energi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alfa Energi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alfa Energi.
| 04/06/2024 |
| 05/06/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alfa Energi on April 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alfa Energi Investama or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alfa Energi over 30 days. Alfa Energi is related to or competes with PT MNC, Tanah Laut, Indorama Synthetics, Fortune Mate, and Rig Tenders. PT Alfa Energi Investama Tbk, through its subsidiaries, engages in the coal mining and trading business in Indonesia More
Alfa Energi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alfa Energi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alfa Energi Investama upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 46.07 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.74) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.37 |
Alfa Energi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alfa Energi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alfa Energi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alfa Energi historical prices to predict the future Alfa Energi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.92) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3408 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alfa Energi's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alfa Energi Investama Backtested Returns
Alfa Energi Investama secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0015, which signifies that the company had a -0.0015% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Alfa Energi Investama exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Alfa Energi's risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Mean Deviation of 3.46 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.68, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alfa Energi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Alfa Energi is likely to outperform the market. Alfa Energi Investama has an expected return of -0.0101%. Please make sure to confirm Alfa Energi Investama coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Alfa Energi Investama performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Alfa Energi Investama has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alfa Energi time series from 6th of April 2024 to 21st of April 2024 and 21st of April 2024 to 6th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alfa Energi Investama price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Alfa Energi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.44 |
Alfa Energi Investama lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alfa Energi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alfa Energi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alfa Energi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alfa Energi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alfa Energi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alfa Energi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alfa Energi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alfa Energi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alfa Energi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alfa Energi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alfa Energi stock have on its future price. Alfa Energi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alfa Energi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alfa Energi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alfa Energi Investama.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alfa Energi in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alfa Energi's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alfa Energi options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Alfa Stock analysis
When running Alfa Energi's price analysis, check to measure Alfa Energi's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alfa Energi is operating at the current time. Most of Alfa Energi's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alfa Energi's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alfa Energi's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alfa Energi to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Alfa Energi technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.