Proshares Ultrashort Oil Etf Market Value
| DUG Etf | USD 8.80 0.11 1.23% |
| Symbol | ProShares |
The market value of ProShares UltraShort Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ProShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ProShares UltraShort's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ProShares UltraShort's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ProShares UltraShort's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ProShares UltraShort's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ProShares UltraShort's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ProShares UltraShort is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ProShares UltraShort's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
ProShares UltraShort 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ProShares UltraShort's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ProShares UltraShort.
| 03/31/2024 |
| 04/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ProShares UltraShort on March 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ProShares UltraShort Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in ProShares UltraShort over 30 days. ProShares UltraShort is related to or competes with ProShares Ultra, ProShares UltraShort, ProShares UltraShort, ProShares UltraShort, and ProShares UltraShort. The fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns ... More
ProShares UltraShort Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ProShares UltraShort's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ProShares UltraShort Oil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.23 |
ProShares UltraShort Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ProShares UltraShort's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ProShares UltraShort's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ProShares UltraShort historical prices to predict the future ProShares UltraShort's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.16) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.37) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.69) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3865 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ProShares UltraShort's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ProShares UltraShort Oil Backtested Returns
ProShares UltraShort Oil maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.27, which implies the entity had a -0.27% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. ProShares UltraShort Oil exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check ProShares UltraShort's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.16), coefficient of variation of (383.24), and Variance of 3.04 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The etf holds a Beta of -1.2, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning ProShares UltraShort are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, ProShares UltraShort is expected to outperform it.
Auto-correlation | -0.09 |
Very weak reverse predictability
ProShares UltraShort Oil has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ProShares UltraShort time series from 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 30th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ProShares UltraShort Oil price movement. The serial correlation of -0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current ProShares UltraShort price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
ProShares UltraShort Oil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ProShares UltraShort etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ProShares UltraShort's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ProShares UltraShort returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ProShares UltraShort has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ProShares UltraShort regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ProShares UltraShort etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ProShares UltraShort etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ProShares UltraShort etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ProShares UltraShort Lagged Returns
When evaluating ProShares UltraShort's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ProShares UltraShort etf have on its future price. ProShares UltraShort autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ProShares UltraShort autocorrelation shows the relationship between ProShares UltraShort etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ProShares UltraShort Oil.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with ProShares UltraShort
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ProShares UltraShort position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ProShares UltraShort will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ProShares Etf
| 0.64 | SPXU | ProShares UltraPro Short | PairCorr |
Moving against ProShares Etf
| 1.0 | DIG | ProShares Ultra Oil | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | IEO | iShares Oil Gas | PairCorr |
| 0.99 | GUSH | Direxion Daily SP | PairCorr |
| 0.99 | PXE | Invesco Dynamic Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | NRGU | MicroSectors Big Oil | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ProShares UltraShort could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ProShares UltraShort when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ProShares UltraShort - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ProShares UltraShort Oil to buy it.
The correlation of ProShares UltraShort is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ProShares UltraShort moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ProShares UltraShort Oil moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ProShares UltraShort can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out ProShares UltraShort Correlation, ProShares UltraShort Volatility and ProShares UltraShort Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ProShares UltraShort. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
ProShares UltraShort technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.