CONSOL ENERGY (Germany) Market Value
| CGD Stock | EUR 21.20 1.20 5.36% |
| Symbol | CONSOL |
CONSOL ENERGY 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to CONSOL ENERGY's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of CONSOL ENERGY.
| 04/03/2024 |
| 05/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in CONSOL ENERGY on April 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding CONSOL ENERGY or generate 0.0% return on investment in CONSOL ENERGY over 30 days. CONSOL ENERGY is related to or competes with UMC Electronics, Universal Electronics, SCIENCE IN, Sporttotal, Columbia Sportswear, Gaztransport Technigaz, and SPORT LISBOA. More
CONSOL ENERGY Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure CONSOL ENERGY's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess CONSOL ENERGY upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1433 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.02) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.03 |
CONSOL ENERGY Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for CONSOL ENERGY's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as CONSOL ENERGY's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use CONSOL ENERGY historical prices to predict the future CONSOL ENERGY's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1202 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2768 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1632 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1602 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (53.19) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CONSOL ENERGY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CONSOL ENERGY Backtested Returns
CONSOL ENERGY appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. CONSOL ENERGY secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for CONSOL ENERGY, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of CONSOL ENERGY's mean deviation of 1.23, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1202 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, CONSOL ENERGY holds a performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0052, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning CONSOL ENERGY are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, CONSOL ENERGY is likely to outperform the market. Please check CONSOL ENERGY's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether CONSOL ENERGY's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.17 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
CONSOL ENERGY has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between CONSOL ENERGY time series from 3rd of April 2024 to 18th of April 2024 and 18th of April 2024 to 3rd of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of CONSOL ENERGY price movement. The serial correlation of -0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current CONSOL ENERGY price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.17 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.15 |
CONSOL ENERGY lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is CONSOL ENERGY stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting CONSOL ENERGY's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of CONSOL ENERGY returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that CONSOL ENERGY has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
CONSOL ENERGY regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If CONSOL ENERGY stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if CONSOL ENERGY stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in CONSOL ENERGY stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
CONSOL ENERGY Lagged Returns
When evaluating CONSOL ENERGY's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of CONSOL ENERGY stock have on its future price. CONSOL ENERGY autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, CONSOL ENERGY autocorrelation shows the relationship between CONSOL ENERGY stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in CONSOL ENERGY.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with CONSOL ENERGY
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CONSOL ENERGY position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CONSOL ENERGY will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against CONSOL Stock
| 0.95 | PTI | Perusahaan Perseroan Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | TCID | Telkom Indonesia Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | DBPD | Xtrackers ShortDAX | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | APC | Apple Inc | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CONSOL ENERGY could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CONSOL ENERGY when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CONSOL ENERGY - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CONSOL ENERGY to buy it.
The correlation of CONSOL ENERGY is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CONSOL ENERGY moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CONSOL ENERGY moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CONSOL ENERGY can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out CONSOL ENERGY Correlation, CONSOL ENERGY Volatility and CONSOL ENERGY Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on CONSOL ENERGY. For information on how to trade CONSOL Stock refer to our How to Trade CONSOL Stock guide.Note that the CONSOL ENERGY information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CONSOL ENERGY's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for CONSOL Stock analysis
When running CONSOL ENERGY's price analysis, check to measure CONSOL ENERGY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CONSOL ENERGY is operating at the current time. Most of CONSOL ENERGY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CONSOL ENERGY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CONSOL ENERGY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CONSOL ENERGY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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CONSOL ENERGY technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.