Alkindo Naratama (Indonesia) Market Value
| ALDO Stock | IDR 850.00 15.00 1.73% |
| Symbol | Alkindo |
Alkindo Naratama 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alkindo Naratama's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alkindo Naratama.
| 04/04/2024 |
| 05/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alkindo Naratama on April 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alkindo Naratama Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alkindo Naratama over 30 days. Alkindo Naratama is related to or competes with United Tractors, Indofood Sukses, Kalbe Farma, and Jasa Marga. More
Alkindo Naratama Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alkindo Naratama's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alkindo Naratama Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.75 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0947 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.4 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.1 |
Alkindo Naratama Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alkindo Naratama's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alkindo Naratama's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alkindo Naratama historical prices to predict the future Alkindo Naratama's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0854 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3529 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0264 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.071 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.34) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alkindo Naratama's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alkindo Naratama Tbk Backtested Returns
Alkindo Naratama appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Alkindo Naratama Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which signifies that the company had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Alkindo Naratama's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.6% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Alkindo Naratama's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0854, downside deviation of 3.75, and Mean Deviation of 1.82 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Alkindo Naratama holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.25, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alkindo Naratama are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Alkindo Naratama is likely to outperform the market. Please check Alkindo Naratama's downside deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Alkindo Naratama's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.21 |
Weak reverse predictability
Alkindo Naratama Tbk has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alkindo Naratama time series from 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024 and 19th of April 2024 to 4th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alkindo Naratama Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Alkindo Naratama price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 50.0 |
Alkindo Naratama Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alkindo Naratama stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alkindo Naratama's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alkindo Naratama returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alkindo Naratama has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alkindo Naratama regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alkindo Naratama stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alkindo Naratama stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alkindo Naratama stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alkindo Naratama Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alkindo Naratama's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alkindo Naratama stock have on its future price. Alkindo Naratama autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alkindo Naratama autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alkindo Naratama stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alkindo Naratama Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alkindo Naratama in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alkindo Naratama's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alkindo Naratama options trading.
Pair Trading with Alkindo Naratama
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alkindo Naratama position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alkindo Naratama will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Alkindo Stock
| 0.77 | AGII | Aneka Gas Industri | PairCorr |
Moving against Alkindo Stock
| 0.92 | ALMI | Alumindo Light Metal | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | GDST | Gunawan Dianjaya Steel | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | ALKA | Alakasa Industrindo Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | BAJA | Saranacentral Bajatama | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | BRPT | Barito Pacific Tbk | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alkindo Naratama could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alkindo Naratama when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alkindo Naratama - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alkindo Naratama Tbk to buy it.
The correlation of Alkindo Naratama is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alkindo Naratama moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alkindo Naratama Tbk moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alkindo Naratama can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Alkindo Naratama Correlation, Alkindo Naratama Volatility and Alkindo Naratama Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Alkindo Naratama. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Complementary Tools for Alkindo Stock analysis
When running Alkindo Naratama's price analysis, check to measure Alkindo Naratama's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alkindo Naratama is operating at the current time. Most of Alkindo Naratama's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alkindo Naratama's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alkindo Naratama's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alkindo Naratama to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Alkindo Naratama technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.