Adobe (Mexico) Market Value
| ADBE Stock | MXN 8,300 195.99 2.42% |
| Symbol | Adobe |
Adobe 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Adobe's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Adobe.
| 03/07/2024 |
| 05/06/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Adobe on March 7, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Adobe Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Adobe over 60 days. Adobe is related to or competes with Lloyds Banking, KB Home, First Republic, Air Transport, UnitedHealth Group, Genworth Financial, and Ameriprise Financial. Adobe Inc. operates as a diversified software company worldwide More
Adobe Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Adobe's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Adobe Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.39) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.2 |
Adobe Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Adobe's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Adobe's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Adobe historical prices to predict the future Adobe's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.31) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.66) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6077 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adobe's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adobe Inc Backtested Returns
Adobe Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which signifies that the company had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Adobe Inc exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Adobe's Mean Deviation of 1.85, risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Standard Deviation of 2.79 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Adobe are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Adobe is likely to outperform the market. Adobe Inc has an expected return of -0.32%. Please make sure to confirm Adobe Inc total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Adobe Inc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
Adobe Inc has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Adobe time series from 7th of March 2024 to 6th of April 2024 and 6th of April 2024 to 6th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Adobe Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Adobe price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 17.9 K |
Adobe Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Adobe stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Adobe's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Adobe returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Adobe has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Adobe regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Adobe stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Adobe stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Adobe stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Adobe Lagged Returns
When evaluating Adobe's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Adobe stock have on its future price. Adobe autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Adobe autocorrelation shows the relationship between Adobe stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Adobe Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Adobe in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Adobe's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Adobe options trading.
Pair Trading with Adobe
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adobe position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adobe will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Adobe Stock
| 0.76 | INTU | Intuit Inc | PairCorr |
Moving against Adobe Stock
| 0.93 | MRO | Marathon Oil | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | DVN | Devon Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | APA | APA Corporation | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | RCL | Royal Caribbean Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adobe could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adobe when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adobe - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adobe Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Adobe is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adobe moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adobe Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adobe can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Adobe Correlation, Adobe Volatility and Adobe Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Adobe. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Adobe Stock analysis
When running Adobe's price analysis, check to measure Adobe's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adobe is operating at the current time. Most of Adobe's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adobe's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adobe's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adobe to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Adobe technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.