Alleghany Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| YDelisted Stock | USD 847.79 0.02 0% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alleghany on the next trading day is expected to be 848.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25. Alleghany Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alleghany stock prices and determine the direction of Alleghany's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alleghany's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing. Alleghany |
Most investors in Alleghany cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alleghany's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alleghany's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Alleghany - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Alleghany prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Alleghany price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Alleghany. Alleghany Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alleghany on the next trading day is expected to be 848.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 2.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alleghany Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alleghany's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alleghany Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alleghany stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alleghany stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1129 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0042 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.2493 |
Predictive Modules for Alleghany
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alleghany. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alleghany's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alleghany Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alleghany stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alleghany could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alleghany by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alleghany Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alleghany stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alleghany shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alleghany stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alleghany entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alleghany Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alleghany's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alleghany's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alleghany stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1148 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1649 | |||
| Variance | 0.0272 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0167 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in manufacturing. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Other Consideration for investing in Alleghany Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Alleghany check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Alleghany's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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