JM Smucker Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

SJM Stock  USD 125.87  0.15  0.12%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of JM Smucker on the next trading day is expected to be 126.78 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.35  and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.22. SJM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JM Smucker stock prices and determine the direction of JM Smucker's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of JM Smucker's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JM Smucker to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in SJM Stock, please use our How to Invest in JM Smucker guide.
  
Most investors in JM Smucker cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JM Smucker's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JM Smucker's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
JM Smucker polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for JM Smucker as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

JM Smucker Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of JM Smucker on the next trading day is expected to be 126.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35, mean absolute percentage error of 2.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SJM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JM Smucker's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JM Smucker Stock Forecast Pattern

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JM Smucker Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JM Smucker's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JM Smucker's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 125.45 and 128.11, respectively. We have considered JM Smucker's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
125.87
125.45
Downside
126.78
Expected Value
128.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JM Smucker stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JM Smucker stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1564
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3479
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors82.2218
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the JM Smucker historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for JM Smucker

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JM Smucker. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JM Smucker's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
124.54125.87127.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
124.14125.47126.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
118.65122.61126.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JM Smucker. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JM Smucker's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JM Smucker's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in JM Smucker.

Other Forecasting Options for JM Smucker

For every potential investor in SJM, whether a beginner or expert, JM Smucker's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SJM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SJM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JM Smucker's price trends.

JM Smucker Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JM Smucker stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JM Smucker could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JM Smucker by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JM Smucker Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JM Smucker's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JM Smucker's current price.

JM Smucker Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JM Smucker stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JM Smucker shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JM Smucker stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JM Smucker entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JM Smucker Risk Indicators

The analysis of JM Smucker's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JM Smucker's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sjm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether JM Smucker is a strong investment it is important to analyze JM Smucker's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact JM Smucker's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding SJM Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JM Smucker to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in SJM Stock, please use our How to Invest in JM Smucker guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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Is JM Smucker's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JM Smucker. If investors know SJM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JM Smucker listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of JM Smucker is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SJM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JM Smucker's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JM Smucker's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JM Smucker's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JM Smucker's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JM Smucker's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JM Smucker is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JM Smucker's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.