New World Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

RNEBX Fund  USD 77.33  0.22  0.29%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of New World Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 77.14 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.29  and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.09. New Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New World stock prices and determine the direction of New World Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New World's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New World to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in New World cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the New World's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets New World's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
New World polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for New World Fund as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

New World Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of New World Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 77.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New World's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

New World Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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New World Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting New World's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New World's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 76.54 and 77.73, respectively. We have considered New World's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
77.33
77.14
Expected Value
77.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New World mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New World mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9204
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2918
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0039
SAESum of the absolute errors18.089
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the New World historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for New World

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New World Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New World's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
76.7377.3377.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
76.0576.6585.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
77.0277.2077.39
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New World. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New World's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New World's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in New World Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for New World

For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New World's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New World's price trends.

New World Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New World mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New World could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New World by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

New World Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New World's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New World's current price.

New World Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New World mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New World shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New World mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify New World Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

New World Risk Indicators

The analysis of New World's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New World's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New World to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the New World Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New World's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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When running New World's price analysis, check to measure New World's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New World is operating at the current time. Most of New World's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New World's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New World's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New World to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between New World's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if New World is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New World's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.