Marsh McLennan Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MMC Stock  USD 205.98  0.37  0.18%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Marsh McLennan Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 205.38 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.89  and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.34. Marsh Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marsh McLennan stock prices and determine the direction of Marsh McLennan Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marsh McLennan's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Marsh McLennan's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Marsh McLennan's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Marsh McLennan fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marsh McLennan to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Marsh McLennan's Receivables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.89, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 1.33. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 555.4 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 3.7 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Marsh Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Marsh McLennan's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Marsh McLennan's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Marsh McLennan stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Marsh McLennan's open interest, investors have to compare it to Marsh McLennan's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Marsh McLennan is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Marsh. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Marsh McLennan cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marsh McLennan's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marsh McLennan's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Marsh McLennan polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Marsh McLennan Companies as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Marsh McLennan Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Marsh McLennan Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 205.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 5.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marsh Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marsh McLennan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marsh McLennan Stock Forecast Pattern

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Marsh McLennan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marsh McLennan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marsh McLennan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 204.52 and 206.24, respectively. We have considered Marsh McLennan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
205.98
204.52
Downside
205.38
Expected Value
206.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marsh McLennan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marsh McLennan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7762
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8909
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors115.3439
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Marsh McLennan historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Marsh McLennan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marsh McLennan Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marsh McLennan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
204.81205.67206.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
185.32186.18226.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
201.76204.02206.28
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
187.30205.82228.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marsh McLennan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marsh McLennan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marsh McLennan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marsh McLennan Companies.

Other Forecasting Options for Marsh McLennan

For every potential investor in Marsh, whether a beginner or expert, Marsh McLennan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marsh Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marsh. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marsh McLennan's price trends.

Marsh McLennan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marsh McLennan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marsh McLennan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marsh McLennan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marsh McLennan Companies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marsh McLennan's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marsh McLennan's current price.

Marsh McLennan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marsh McLennan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marsh McLennan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marsh McLennan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marsh McLennan Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marsh McLennan Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marsh McLennan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marsh McLennan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marsh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Marsh McLennan Investors Sentiment

The influence of Marsh McLennan's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Marsh. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Marsh McLennan's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marsh. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marsh can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marsh McLennan Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Marsh McLennan's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Marsh McLennan's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Marsh McLennan's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Marsh McLennan.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Marsh McLennan in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Marsh McLennan's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Marsh McLennan options trading.

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When determining whether Marsh McLennan Companies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Marsh McLennan's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Marsh Mclennan Companies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Marsh Mclennan Companies Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marsh McLennan to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.

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When running Marsh McLennan's price analysis, check to measure Marsh McLennan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marsh McLennan is operating at the current time. Most of Marsh McLennan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marsh McLennan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marsh McLennan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marsh McLennan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marsh McLennan's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marsh McLennan. If investors know Marsh will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marsh McLennan listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.643
Dividend Share
2.72
Earnings Share
7.52
Revenue Per Share
46.024
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.106
The market value of Marsh McLennan Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marsh that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marsh McLennan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marsh McLennan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marsh McLennan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marsh McLennan's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marsh McLennan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marsh McLennan is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marsh McLennan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.