First American Money Market Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FPPXX Fund  USD 1.00  0.00  0.00%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First American Funds on the next trading day is expected to be 1.00 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.00  and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00. First Money Market Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First American stock prices and determine the direction of First American Funds's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First American's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of First American to check your projections.
For more information on how to buy First Money Market Fund please use our How to Invest in First American guide.
  
Most investors in First American cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First American's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First American's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
First American polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for First American Funds as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

First American Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First American Funds on the next trading day is expected to be 1.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Money Market Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First American Money Market Fund Forecast Pattern

First American Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First American's Money Market Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.00 and 1.00, respectively. We have considered First American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.00
1.00
Expected Value
1.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First American money market fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First American money market fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria-9.223372036854776E14
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the First American historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for First American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First American Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the money market fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the money market fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.001.001.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.001.001.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First American. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First American's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First American's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First American Funds.

Other Forecasting Options for First American

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Money Market Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First American's price trends.

First American Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First American money market fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First American Funds Technical and Predictive Analytics

The money market fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First American's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First American's current price.

First American Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First American money market fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First American shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First American money market fund market strength indicators, traders can identify First American Funds entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First American options trading.

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Check out fundamental analysis of First American to check your projections.
For more information on how to buy First Money Market Fund please use our How to Invest in First American guide.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between First American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First American is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.