Fair Isaac Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

FICO Stock  USD 1,250  8.90  0.71%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 1,250 with a mean absolute deviation of  19.84  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,210. Fair Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fair Isaac stock prices and determine the direction of Fair Isaac's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fair Isaac's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fair Isaac's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fair Isaac's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fair Isaac fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fair Isaac to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Fair Stock, please use our How to Invest in Fair Isaac guide.
  
At this time, Fair Isaac's Fixed Asset Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 3.74, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 24.10. . As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 34.7 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 518.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Fair Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fair Isaac's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fair Isaac's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fair Isaac stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fair Isaac's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fair Isaac's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fair Isaac is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fair. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fair Isaac cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fair Isaac's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fair Isaac's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Fair Isaac simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Fair Isaac are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Fair Isaac prices get older.

Fair Isaac Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 1,250 with a mean absolute deviation of 19.84, mean absolute percentage error of 716.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,210.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fair Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fair Isaac's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fair Isaac Stock Forecast Pattern

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Fair Isaac Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fair Isaac's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fair Isaac's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,247 and 1,252, respectively. We have considered Fair Isaac's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,250
1,250
Expected Value
1,252
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fair Isaac stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fair Isaac stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.6842
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.9418
MADMean absolute deviation19.8372
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors1210.07
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Fair Isaac forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Fair Isaac observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Fair Isaac

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fair Isaac. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fair Isaac's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,2481,2501,252
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0571,0591,375
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,2061,2701,334
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
869.23955.201,060
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fair Isaac. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fair Isaac's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fair Isaac's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fair Isaac.

Other Forecasting Options for Fair Isaac

For every potential investor in Fair, whether a beginner or expert, Fair Isaac's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fair Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fair. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fair Isaac's price trends.

Fair Isaac Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fair Isaac stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fair Isaac could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fair Isaac by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fair Isaac Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fair Isaac's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fair Isaac's current price.

Fair Isaac Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fair Isaac stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fair Isaac shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fair Isaac stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fair Isaac entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fair Isaac Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fair Isaac's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fair Isaac's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fair stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Fair Isaac offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Fair Isaac's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fair Isaac Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fair Isaac Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fair Isaac to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Fair Stock, please use our How to Invest in Fair Isaac guide.
Note that the Fair Isaac information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fair Isaac's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

Complementary Tools for Fair Stock analysis

When running Fair Isaac's price analysis, check to measure Fair Isaac's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fair Isaac is operating at the current time. Most of Fair Isaac's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fair Isaac's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fair Isaac's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fair Isaac to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fair Isaac's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fair Isaac. If investors know Fair will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fair Isaac listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.25
Earnings Share
17.87
Revenue Per Share
62.24
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.108
Return On Assets
0.2678
The market value of Fair Isaac is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fair that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fair Isaac's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fair Isaac's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fair Isaac's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fair Isaac's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fair Isaac's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fair Isaac is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fair Isaac's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.