Disney Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DIS Stock | USD 112.43 0.51 0.45% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Walt Disney on the next trading day is expected to be 105.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.33. Disney Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Disney stock prices and determine the direction of Walt Disney's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Disney's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Disney's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Disney's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Disney fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Disney to cross-verify your projections. Disney |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Disney Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Disney's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Disney's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Disney stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Disney's open interest, investors have to compare it to Disney's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Disney is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Disney. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Disney cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Disney's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Disney's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Disney is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Walt Disney value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Disney Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Walt Disney on the next trading day is expected to be 105.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02, mean absolute percentage error of 5.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Disney Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Disney's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Disney Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Disney | Disney Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Disney Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Disney's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Disney's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.63 and 107.45, respectively. We have considered Disney's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Disney stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Disney stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8874 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0218 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.3319 |
Predictive Modules for Disney
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Walt Disney. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Disney's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Disney
For every potential investor in Disney, whether a beginner or expert, Disney's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Disney Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Disney. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Disney's price trends.Disney Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Disney stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Disney could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Disney by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Walt Disney Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Disney's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Disney's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Disney Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Disney stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Disney shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Disney stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Walt Disney entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 148428.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.25) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 113.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 112.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.51) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 89.03 |
Disney Risk Indicators
The analysis of Disney's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Disney's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting disney stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Variance | 3.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Disney
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Disney position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Disney will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Disney Stock
| 0.85 | CTV | Innovid Corp Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Disney Stock
| 0.86 | UONEK | Urban One Class Report 4th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | RSVRW | Reservoir Media Mana | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | CHTR | Charter Communications Earnings Call Next Week | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | SJ | Scienjoy Holding Corp Report 26th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | WMG | Warner Music Group Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Disney could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Disney when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Disney - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Walt Disney to buy it.
The correlation of Disney is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Disney moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Walt Disney moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Disney can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Disney to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Disney Stock analysis
When running Disney's price analysis, check to measure Disney's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Disney is operating at the current time. Most of Disney's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Disney's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Disney's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Disney to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Disney's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Disney. If investors know Disney will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Disney listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.486 | Dividend Share 0.3 | Earnings Share 1.63 | Revenue Per Share 48.605 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
The market value of Walt Disney is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Disney that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Disney's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Disney's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Disney's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Disney's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Disney's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Disney is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Disney's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.