Asuransi Jasa Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ASJT Stock  IDR 115.00  1.00  0.86%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Asuransi Jasa Tania on the next trading day is expected to be 116.29 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.31  and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.70. Asuransi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Asuransi Jasa stock prices and determine the direction of Asuransi Jasa Tania's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Asuransi Jasa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Asuransi Jasa to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Asuransi Jasa cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Asuransi Jasa's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Asuransi Jasa's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Asuransi Jasa polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Asuransi Jasa Tania as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Asuransi Jasa Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Asuransi Jasa Tania on the next trading day is expected to be 116.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 2.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Asuransi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Asuransi Jasa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Asuransi Jasa Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Asuransi JasaAsuransi Jasa Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Asuransi Jasa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Asuransi Jasa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Asuransi Jasa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 114.87 and 117.72, respectively. We have considered Asuransi Jasa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
115.00
114.87
Downside
116.29
Expected Value
117.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Asuransi Jasa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Asuransi Jasa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.0988
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3066
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0109
SAESum of the absolute errors79.6997
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Asuransi Jasa historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Asuransi Jasa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asuransi Jasa Tania. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Asuransi Jasa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
113.58115.00116.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
111.38112.80126.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
114.48117.00119.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Asuransi Jasa. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Asuransi Jasa's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Asuransi Jasa's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Asuransi Jasa Tania.

Other Forecasting Options for Asuransi Jasa

For every potential investor in Asuransi, whether a beginner or expert, Asuransi Jasa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Asuransi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Asuransi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Asuransi Jasa's price trends.

Asuransi Jasa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Asuransi Jasa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Asuransi Jasa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Asuransi Jasa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Asuransi Jasa Tania Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Asuransi Jasa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Asuransi Jasa's current price.

Asuransi Jasa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Asuransi Jasa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Asuransi Jasa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Asuransi Jasa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Asuransi Jasa Tania entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Asuransi Jasa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Asuransi Jasa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Asuransi Jasa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asuransi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Asuransi Jasa in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Asuransi Jasa's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Asuransi Jasa options trading.

Pair Trading with Asuransi Jasa

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Asuransi Jasa position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Asuransi Jasa will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Asuransi Jasa could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Asuransi Jasa when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Asuransi Jasa - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Asuransi Jasa Tania to buy it.
The correlation of Asuransi Jasa is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Asuransi Jasa moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Asuransi Jasa Tania moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Asuransi Jasa can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Asuransi Jasa to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Asuransi Jasa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Asuransi Jasa is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Asuransi Jasa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.