Mid Cap Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AMDVX Fund  USD 16.17  0.30  1.89%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 16.02 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.22. Mid Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mid Cap stock prices and determine the direction of Mid Cap Value's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mid Cap's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mid Cap to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Mid Cap cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mid Cap's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mid Cap's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Mid Cap Value is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Mid Cap 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Mid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 16.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mid Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mid Cap's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mid Cap Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mid CapMid Cap Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mid Cap Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mid Cap's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mid Cap's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.37 and 16.67, respectively. We have considered Mid Cap's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.17
16.02
Expected Value
16.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mid Cap mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mid Cap mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.1995
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0254
MADMean absolute deviation0.09
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0058
SAESum of the absolute errors5.2225
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Mid Cap. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Mid Cap Value and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Mid Cap

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mid Cap Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mid Cap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.4616.1116.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.3916.0416.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.6915.9716.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mid Cap. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mid Cap's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mid Cap's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mid Cap Value.

Other Forecasting Options for Mid Cap

For every potential investor in Mid, whether a beginner or expert, Mid Cap's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mid Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mid. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mid Cap's price trends.

Mid Cap Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mid Cap mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mid Cap could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mid Cap by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mid Cap Value Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mid Cap's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mid Cap's current price.

Mid Cap Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mid Cap mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mid Cap shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mid Cap mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mid Cap Value entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mid Cap Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mid Cap's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mid Cap's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mid mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mid Cap in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mid Cap's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mid Cap options trading.

Pair Trading with Mid Cap

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Mid Cap position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Mid Cap will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Mid Mutual Fund

  0.81USG USCF Gold Strategy Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.68AMEIX Equity Growth FundPairCorr
  0.82AMGIX Income Growth FundPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Mid Cap could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Mid Cap when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Mid Cap - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Mid Cap Value to buy it.
The correlation of Mid Cap is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Mid Cap moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Mid Cap Value moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Mid Cap can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mid Cap to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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When running Mid Cap's price analysis, check to measure Mid Cap's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mid Cap is operating at the current time. Most of Mid Cap's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mid Cap's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mid Cap's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mid Cap to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Mid Cap's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mid Cap is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mid Cap's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.