Ambow Education Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AMBO Stock  USD 1.58  0.40  20.20%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ambow Education Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.94. Ambow Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ambow Education stock prices and determine the direction of Ambow Education Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ambow Education's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ambow Education's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ambow Education's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ambow Education fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambow Education to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 9.76, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 2.93. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 29.9 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (53.6 M).
Most investors in Ambow Education cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ambow Education's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ambow Education's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Ambow Education price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Ambow Education Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ambow Education Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ambow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ambow Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ambow Education Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ambow EducationAmbow Education Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ambow Education Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ambow Education's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ambow Education's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 19.38, respectively. We have considered Ambow Education's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.58
2.04
Expected Value
19.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ambow Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ambow Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0481
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.241
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1305
SAESum of the absolute errors14.9422
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Ambow Education Holding historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Ambow Education

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambow Education Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ambow Education's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.112.2119.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.5218.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ambow Education. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ambow Education's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ambow Education's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ambow Education Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Ambow Education

For every potential investor in Ambow, whether a beginner or expert, Ambow Education's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ambow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ambow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ambow Education's price trends.

Ambow Education Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ambow Education stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ambow Education could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ambow Education by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ambow Education Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ambow Education's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ambow Education's current price.

Ambow Education Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ambow Education stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ambow Education shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ambow Education stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ambow Education Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ambow Education Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ambow Education's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ambow Education's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ambow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Ambow Education

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ambow Education position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ambow Education will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Ambow Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ambow Education could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ambow Education when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ambow Education - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ambow Education Holding to buy it.
The correlation of Ambow Education is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ambow Education moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ambow Education Holding moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ambow Education can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Ambow Education Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ambow Education's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ambow Education Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ambow Education Holding Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ambow Education to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Ambow Education Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ambow Education's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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Is Ambow Education's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambow Education. If investors know Ambow will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambow Education listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.361
Earnings Share
(2.54)
Revenue Per Share
3.895
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.45)
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Ambow Education Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambow that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambow Education's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambow Education's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambow Education's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambow Education's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambow Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambow Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambow Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.