AGNC Investment Triple Exponential Smoothing

AGNC -- USA Stock  

USD 15.45  0.40  2.52%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast AGNC Investment historic prices and determine the direction of AGNC Investment Corp future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of AGNC Investment historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of AGNC Investment Corp systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of AGNC Investment fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGNC Investment to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for AGNC Investment - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When AGNC Investment prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in AGNC Investment price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of AGNC Investment Corp.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of AGNC Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.46

AGNC Investment Corp Prediction Pattern

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AGNC Investment Forecasted Value

September 16, 2019
15.45
Market Value
15.46
Expected Value
18.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0251
MADMean absolute deviation0.1292
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors7.62
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past AGNC Investment observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older AGNC Investment Corp observations.

Volatility Measures

AGNC Investment Risk Indicators

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