ABN Amro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ABN Stock  EUR 15.85  0.26  1.67%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ABN Amro Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.11 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.03. ABN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ABN Amro stock prices and determine the direction of ABN Amro Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ABN Amro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ABN Amro to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in ABN Amro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ABN Amro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ABN Amro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ABN Amro is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ABN Amro Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ABN Amro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ABN Amro Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ABN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ABN Amro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ABN Amro Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ABN AmroABN Amro Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ABN Amro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ABN Amro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ABN Amro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.63 and 17.59, respectively. We have considered ABN Amro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.85
16.11
Expected Value
17.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ABN Amro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ABN Amro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4149
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2101
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors13.0277
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ABN Amro Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ABN Amro. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ABN Amro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABN Amro Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ABN Amro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.3715.8517.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.6715.1516.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.5215.1115.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ABN Amro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ABN Amro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ABN Amro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ABN Amro Group.

Other Forecasting Options for ABN Amro

For every potential investor in ABN, whether a beginner or expert, ABN Amro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ABN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ABN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ABN Amro's price trends.

ABN Amro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ABN Amro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ABN Amro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ABN Amro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ABN Amro Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ABN Amro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ABN Amro's current price.

ABN Amro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ABN Amro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ABN Amro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ABN Amro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ABN Amro Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ABN Amro Risk Indicators

The analysis of ABN Amro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ABN Amro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with ABN Amro

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ABN Amro position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ABN Amro will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ABN Stock

  0.67INGA ING Groep NVPairCorr
  0.71ASML ASML Holding NVPairCorr
  0.71SHELL Shell PLCPairCorr

Moving against ABN Stock

  0.88HEIO Heineken HoldingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ABN Amro could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ABN Amro when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ABN Amro - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ABN Amro Group to buy it.
The correlation of ABN Amro is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ABN Amro moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ABN Amro Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ABN Amro can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ABN Amro to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between ABN Amro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ABN Amro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ABN Amro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.