American Airlines Stock Forecast - Accumulation Distribution

AAL Stock  USD 12.94  0.21  1.60%   
American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Airlines stock prices and determine the direction of American Airlines Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Airlines' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although American Airlines' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Airlines' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Airlines fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, American Airlines' Fixed Asset Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.87 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 14.72. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 755.7 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 120 M this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 American Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Airlines' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Airlines' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Airlines stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Airlines' open interest, investors have to compare it to American Airlines' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Airlines is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
On January 11, 2017 American Airlines Group had Accumulation Distribution of 0.0423.
Most investors in American Airlines cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Airlines' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Airlines' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
The accumulation distribution (A/D) indicator shows the degree to which American Airlines is accumulated by the market over a given period. It uses the quote sensitivity to the highest or lowest daily price of American Airlines Group to determine if accumulation or reduction is taking place in the market. This value is adjusted by American Airlines trading volume to give more weight to distributions with higher volume over lower volume.
Check American Airlines VolatilityBacktest American AirlinesInformation Ratio  
Accumulation distribution indicator can signal that a trend is either nearing completion, at a continuation, or is about to break-outs. The actual value of this indicator is of no significance. What is significant is the change in value of over time. The formula for A/D of a given trading day can be expressed as follow: ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) X Volume
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Other Forecasting Options for American Airlines

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Airlines' price trends.

American Airlines Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Airlines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Airlines' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Airlines' current price.

American Airlines Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Airlines Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Airlines Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

American Airlines Investors Sentiment

The influence of American Airlines' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to American Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Airlines Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Airlines' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for American Airlines' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average American Airlines' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on American Airlines.

American Airlines Implied Volatility

    
  67.26  
American Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Airlines Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Airlines' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Airlines options trading.

Pair Trading with American Airlines

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Airlines position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Airlines will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Airlines could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Airlines when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Airlines - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Airlines Group to buy it.
The correlation of American Airlines is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Airlines moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Airlines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Airlines can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the American Airlines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Airlines' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

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When running American Airlines' price analysis, check to measure American Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of American Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Earnings Share
1.21
Revenue Per Share
80.764
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
0.0396
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.