| 2015 | 2018 | 2019 (projected) | Urban Outfitters Consolidated Income | 224,489,000 | 202,040,100 | 174,900,404 | Urban Outfitters Direct Expenses | 2,243,232,000 | 2,603,911,000 | 2,160,879,282 |
Will Urban Outfitters eventually come back?
 | By Ellen Johnson | Macroaxis Story |
This thesis is geared towards all Urban Outfitters partners and investors who considers an exit from the corporation. I will inspect the possibilities of making Urban Outfitters into a steady grower in July inspite the current mess. The company Piotroski F Score is 6 - Healthy. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Urban Outfitters is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.99 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.19 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The market is currently generating roughly -0.02 per unit of volatility. What is Urban Outfitters Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Proceeding from normal probability distribution, the odds of Urban Outfitters to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 82.86%. The Urban Outfitters probability density function shows the probability of Urban Outfitters Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Urban Outfitters has beta of 0.0 . This entails the returns on S&P 500 and Urban Outfitters do not appear to be very sensitive. Additionally, it does not look like the company alpha can have any bearing on the equity current valuation.
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin
URBAN OUTFITTERS currently holds roughly 637.49M in cash with 252.58M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.16. This firm dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the stock. Urban Outfitters is not expected to issue dividends this year as it trying to preserve or re-invest any of the funds available for distribution to stakeholders. Earning per share calculations of the firm is based on official Zacks consensus of 12 analysts regarding Urban Outfitters future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 86.09%, the future earnings per share of the company is estimated to be 2.4262 with lowest and highest values of 2.25 and 2.54 respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for the entity is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Urban Outfitters. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Urban Outfitters' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Urban Outfitters' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Urban Outfitters.
Investing in Urban Outfitters, just like investing in any other equity instrument, is characterized by a strong risk-return correlation. High risks mean high returns and low risk means lower expected returns. Risk management is the act of identifying and assessing the potential risk and developing strategies to minimize these risks and earn maximum possible profits while holding Urban Outfitters along with other instruments in the same portfolio. Using conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis to select individual securities into a portfolio complements risk management and adds value to overall investors' investing strategies.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Urban Outfitters' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
How important is Urban Outfitters's Liquidity
Urban Outfitters financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Urban Outfitters ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Urban Outfitters financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Urban Outfitters' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Urban Outfitters' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Urban Outfitters's total debt and its cash.
Urban Outfitters Gross Profit
Urban Outfitters Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Urban Outfitters previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Urban Outfitters Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Urban Outfitters' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.
Urban Outfitters Correlation with Peers
Investors in Urban can reduce exposure to individual asset risk by holding a diversified portfolio of assets in addition to a long position in Urban Outfitters. Diversification will allow for the same portfolio return with reduced risk. The correlation table of Urban Outfitters and its peers is a two-dimensional matrix that shows the correlation coefficient between pairs of securities Urban is related in some way. The cells in the table are color-coded to highlight significantly positive and negative relationships. Each cell shows the correlation between one pair of equities and can be used to run pair trading strategies or create efficient portfolios with your current brokerage. Please check volatility of Urban for more details
Breaking down Urban Outfitters Further
The big decline in price over the last few months for Urban Outfittershas created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as 23.11 and as high as 23.91 per share. The company directors and management failed to add value to investors and positioning the company components to exploit market volatility in May. However, diversifying your holdings with Urban Outfitters or any similar stocks can still protect your portfolios during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 2.3576. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in May 2019 as well as with Urban Outfitters unsystematic, company specific events. Urban Outfitters preserves 11.69% of return on asset. Urban Outfitters is trading at 23.85. This is 0.87 percent down. Today lowest is 23.11. Urban Outfitters Earnings per Basic Share is increasing over the last 5 years. The existing value of Urban Outfitters Earnings per Basic Share is 2.14. Also, Urban Outfitters EBITDA Margin is decreasing over the last 5 years. The existing value of Urban Outfitters EBITDA Margin is 16.06.
To conclude, our current 'Buy/Hold/Sell' recommendation on the corporation is Hold. Urban Outfitters is currently undervalued with below average probability of distress for the next two years.
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