Safety Insurance is down -0.91

Today I will review Safety Insurance. I will break down why Safety Insurance leadership may should not consider a stake in the firm. Is the firm valuation justified? Here I will also cover Safety Insurance prospective on valuation to give you a better outlook on taking a position in this stock. What is Safety Insurance Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Attributed to normal probability distribution, the odds of Safety Insurance to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 31.44%. The Safety Insurance Group probability density function shows the probability of Safety Insurance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Safety Insurance has beta of 0.3913 . This entails as returns on market go up, Safety Insurance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Safety Insurance Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally, the company has an alpha of 0.0404 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0404% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

The company currently holds 36.99M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 4.9 indicating the entity may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. This firm dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the stock. Safety Insurance one year expected dividend income is about $1.6 per share.
We determine the current worth of Safety Insurance Group using both absolute as well as relative valuation methodologies to arrive at its intrinsic value. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Safety Insurance based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Safety Insurance's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, operating cash flow, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Safety Insurance's intrinsic value. In some cases, mostly for established, large-cap companies, we also incorporate more traditional valuation methods such as dividend discount, discounted cash flow, or asset-based models. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Safety Insurance. We calculate exposure to Safety Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Safety Insurance's related companies.

Safety Insurance Investment Alerts

Safety investment alerts and warnings help investors to get more proficient at understanding not only critical technical and fundamental signals but also the significant portfolio-centered indicators. These indicators include beta, alpha, and other risk-related measures that will help you in monitoring Safety Insurance Group performance across your portfolios.Please check all investment alerts for Safety

Safety Insurance Valuation Ratios as Compared to Competition

Our valuation model uses many indicators to compare Safety value to that of its competitors to determine the firm's financial worth. You can analyze the relationship between different fundamental ratios across Safety Insurance competition to find correlations between indicators driving the intrinsic value of Safety.

What is driving Safety Insurance Investor Appetite?

Safety Insurance exercises its assets roughly 4.35 %, realizing $0.0435 for each dollar of assets held by the company. A flourishing assets utilization indicates the company is being more effective with each dollar of assets it has. In other words assets utilization of Safety Insurance shows how effective it operates for each dollar spent on its assets. The current investor indifference towards the small price fluctuations of Safety Insurance has created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as 95.25 and as high as 96.45 per share. The company directors and management did not add any value to Safety Insurance investors in June. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with Safety Insurance to hedge your portfolio against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 1.0046. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for a longer term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors. Safety Insurance is selling for 95.35. This is 0.91% down. Opened at 95.35. Safety Insurance Cost of Revenue is decreasing over the last 4 years. Safety Insurance Capital Expenditure is comparatively stable at the moment. Furthermore, Safety Insurance Net Income Common Stock USD is increasing over the last 4 years. The late value of Safety Insurance Net Income Common Stock USD is 68,285,609.
 2015 2016 2017 2018 (projected)
Safety Insurance Cash and Equivalents 47,494,000  20,052,000  41,708,000  37,582,000 
Safety Insurance Total Assets 1,703,869,000  1,758,246,000  1,807,279,000  1,856,240,000 
The bottom line, I belive Safety Insurance is currently overvalued. It Slowly supersedes market and projects very small probability of distress in the next two years. Our immediate buy or sell advice on the firm is Strong Hold.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Safety Insurance Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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