Big Lots dips -1.36
 | By Ellen Johnson | Macroaxis Story |
In this write-up I will digest Big Lots. I will look into why despite ongoing dip, the longer-term fundamental drivers of the firm are still sound. Big Lots moves slightly opposite to market. The returns on the market and returns on Big Lots appear slightly-related for the last few months. Unsteady fundamental drivers of the firm may also indicate signs of longer-term losses for the firm shareholders. What is Big Lots Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Pertaining to normal probability distribution, the odds of Big Lots to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 53.98%. The Big Lots probability density function shows the probability of Big Lots Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Considering 30-days investment horizon, Big Lots has beta of -0.5339 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Big Lots are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Big Lots is likely to outperform the market. Additionally, the company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Big Lots is significantly underperforming Russell 2000 .
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Reviewed by Vlad Skutelnik
This firm average rating is Hold from 8 analysts. As of 14 of September Big Lots shows Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) and Mean Deviation of 2.08. Big Lots technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm future prices. In plain English you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum or the prices will eventually revert. We found nineteen technical drivers for Big Lots which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Big Lots Coefficient Of Variation, Maximum Drawdown, Skewness, as well as the relationship between Information Ratio and Downside Variance to decide if Big Lots is priced correctly providing market reflects its regular price of 22.44 per share. Given that Big Lots has Jensen Alpha of (0.31), we suggest you validate Big Lots prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at future point.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Big Lots. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Big Lots' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Big Lots' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Big Lots.
Using predictive technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Big Lots. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing Big Lots stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build Big Lots's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Big Lots's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Big Lots, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect Big Lots price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big Lots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
How important is Big Lots's Liquidity
Big Lots financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Big Lots ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Big Lots financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Big Lots' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Big Lots' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Big Lots's total debt and its cash.
Big Lots Gross Profit
Big Lots Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Big Lots previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Big Lots Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Big Lots' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.
Breaking down the case for Big Lots
The recent decline in stock price could raise concerns from investors as the firm closed today at a share price of 22.44 on 1 in volume. The company directors and management have failed to build on market volatilities in August. However, diversifying your overall positions with Big Lots may protect your principal portfolio during upcoming market swings. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 2.7959. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in August 2019 as well as with Big Lots unsystematic, company specific events. Big Lots preserves 7.83x of price to earning. Big Lots is trading at 22.44 which is 1.36 percent decrease. Today lowest is 22.44. Big Lots Return on Sales is increasing over the last 4 years. Big Lots Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is increasing over the last 4 years. Additionally, Big Lots Net Loss Income from Discontinued Operations is decreasing over the last 4 years. To sum up, our prevailing buy-sell advice on the firm is Strong Sell. Big Lots is currently undervalued with below average probability of distress for the next two years.
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