Novartis Ag Adr Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

NVS Stock  USD 96.73  0.85  0.89%   
Novartis' odds of distress is less than 5% at this time. It is unlikely to undergo any financial hardship in the next 24 months. Novartis' Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Novartis Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Novartis balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Novartis Piotroski F Score and Novartis Altman Z Score analysis.
  

Novartis Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Novartis' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Novartis Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Less than 5%  
Most of Novartis' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Novartis AG ADR is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Novartis probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Novartis odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Novartis AG ADR financial health.
Is Novartis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novartis. If investors know Novartis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novartis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.987
Dividend Share
3.919
Earnings Share
4.1
Revenue Per Share
22.467
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.074
The market value of Novartis AG ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novartis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novartis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novartis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novartis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novartis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novartis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Novartis Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Novartis is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Novartis Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Novartis' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Novartis' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Novartis' interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Novartis AG ADR has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 5.0%. This is 88.45% lower than that of the Pharmaceuticals sector and significantly higher than that of the Health Care industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 87.45% higher than that of the company.

Novartis Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Novartis' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Novartis could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novartis by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Novartis is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Novartis Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Return On Assets0.08660.06040.06110.180.05920.15
Net Debt18.2B28.4B18.7B20.4B13.0B11.0B
Total Current Liabilities28.3B33.1B30.2B28.7B26.4B22.0B
Non Current Liabilities Total34.6B42.3B33.8B29.4B26.8B23.6B
Total Assets118.4B132.1B131.8B117.5B99.9B103.1B
Total Current Assets29.5B29.7B45.7B36.9B30.5B29.9B
Total Cash From Operating Activities13.6B13.7B15.1B14.2B14.5B11.7B

Novartis Fundamentals

About Novartis Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Novartis AG ADR's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Novartis using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Novartis AG ADR based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products worldwide. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland. Novartis operates under Drug ManufacturersGeneral classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 108000 people.

Novartis Investors Sentiment

The influence of Novartis' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Novartis. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Novartis' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Novartis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Novartis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Novartis AG ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Novartis' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Novartis' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Novartis' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Novartis.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Novartis in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Novartis' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Novartis options trading.

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When determining whether Novartis AG ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Novartis' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Novartis' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Novartis Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Novartis Piotroski F Score and Novartis Altman Z Score analysis.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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Is Novartis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novartis. If investors know Novartis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novartis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.987
Dividend Share
3.919
Earnings Share
4.1
Revenue Per Share
22.467
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.074
The market value of Novartis AG ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novartis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novartis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novartis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novartis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novartis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novartis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.