Nrg Energy Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| NRG Stock | USD 72.61 1.12 1.57% |
NRG | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
NRG Energy Company chance of financial distress Analysis
NRG Energy's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current NRG Energy Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 22% |
Most of NRG Energy's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, NRG Energy is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of NRG Energy probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting NRG Energy odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of NRG Energy financial health.
Is NRG Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NRG Energy. If investors know NRG will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NRG Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.946 | Dividend Share 1.54 | Earnings Share (1.12) | Revenue Per Share 126.417 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of NRG Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NRG that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NRG Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NRG Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NRG Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NRG Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NRG Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NRG Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NRG Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
NRG Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for NRG Energy is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of NRG Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since NRG Energy's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of NRG Energy's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of NRG Energy's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, NRG Energy has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 22.0%. This is 53.51% lower than that of the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers sector and significantly higher than that of the Utilities industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 44.77% higher than that of the company.
NRG Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses NRG Energy's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of NRG Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NRG Energy by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.NRG Energy is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
NRG Energy Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.35 | 0.0342 | 0.0943 | 0.0419 | (0.007758) | (0.00737) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.61 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.11 | |
| Net Debt | 6.1B | 5.1B | 8.0B | 7.9B | 10.4B | 8.9B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 2.4B | 1.9B | 7.9B | 13.0B | 9.5B | 10.0B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 8.5B | 11.3B | 11.7B | 12.3B | 13.6B | 12.0B | |
| Total Assets | 12.5B | 14.9B | 23.2B | 29.1B | 26.0B | 20.9B | |
| Total Current Assets | 3.1B | 6.0B | 10.8B | 16.2B | 9.7B | 5.6B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 1.4B | 1.8B | 493M | 360M | (221M) | (210.0M) |
NRG Energy ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, NRG Energy's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to NRG Energy's managers, analysts, and investors.Environment Score | Governance Score | Social Score |
NRG Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.06 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0239 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.01) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.08) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 25.72 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 214.73 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.40 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 98.60 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 10.07 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 20.37 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 7.04 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.55 X | ||||
| Revenue | 28.82 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 4.1 B | ||||
| EBITDA | 325 M | ||||
| Net Income | (202 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 430 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 2.47 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 10.97 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 1.57 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 1.29 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 10.84 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (221 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 2.10 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (1.12) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.40 X | ||||
| Target Price | 67.56 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 18.13 K | ||||
| Beta | 1.13 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 15.35 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 26.04 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 820 M | ||||
| Working Capital | 227 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 7.39 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 4.38 B | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.02 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 1.80 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 26.04 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 1.54 |
About NRG Energy Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze NRG Energy's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of NRG Energy using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of NRG Energy based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
NRG Energy Investors Sentiment
The influence of NRG Energy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NRG. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to NRG Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NRG. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NRG can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NRG Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NRG Energy's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for NRG Energy's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average NRG Energy's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on NRG Energy.
NRG Energy Implied Volatility | 40.92 |
NRG Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NRG Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NRG Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NRG Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when NRG Energy's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NRG Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NRG Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NRG Energy options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out NRG Energy Piotroski F Score and NRG Energy Altman Z Score analysis. For more detail on how to invest in NRG Stock please use our How to Invest in NRG Energy guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for NRG Stock analysis
When running NRG Energy's price analysis, check to measure NRG Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NRG Energy is operating at the current time. Most of NRG Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NRG Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NRG Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NRG Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NRG Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NRG Energy. If investors know NRG will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NRG Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.946 | Dividend Share 1.54 | Earnings Share (1.12) | Revenue Per Share 126.417 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of NRG Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NRG that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NRG Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NRG Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NRG Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NRG Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NRG Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NRG Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NRG Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.